A client asked me to help plan their holiday inventory.
I answered with two questions. They didn't love them.
From my desk today
Last week, I was in a meeting with a client, talking about the holiday forecast.
Near the end, they asked: "Do we need to meet to discuss inventory planning?"
I said we could. But first, I asked them two things:
- Have you defined your holiday objectives?
- Have you evaluated consumer demand for this season?
The questions seemed to exasperate them.
They told me how unpredictable the market has become. And how hard it is to get stuck with slow-moving inventory.
I understood. I've heard the same frustration from a lot of retailers this fall.
But those two questions are still where every good reorder plan starts.
The retailer reality
My client isn't wrong. The market has been hard to read.
According to Statistics Canada, Canadian retail sales rose 0.6% in June, fell 0.7% in July, and an early estimate shows a 1.3% gain in August.
Up, down, up. Try building a holiday plan on that.
Source: Statistics Canada, retail trade, June and July 2026, and advance estimate for August 2026.
And here's what nobody tells you about holiday buying: the risk isn't the same on both sides.
- Buy too little, and you miss some sales in December.
- Buy too much, and your cash sits on a shelf until February. Then you discount it to get it back.
Slow-moving inventory doesn't just cost you margin. It costs you the cash you need for the next opportunity.
So the real question isn't "How much should I buy?" It's "How much risk can my business carry?"
Behind the scenes at Randmar
So, stock deep or order often? My honest answer to my client was: it depends.
Stock deep if you can predict demand well, or if you have the means to support a larger inventory. Then buying deep lets you capture every possible sales opportunity.
Order often if, like several retailers, cash flow is a concern. Buying smaller quantities more often keeps your risk low.
| Stock deep | Order often | |
|---|---|---|
| Best when | You can predict demand well, or can carry a larger inventory | Cash flow is a concern, or demand is hard to read |
| The upside | You capture every possible sale | Less cash tied up, less risk of slow movers |
| The risk | Slow-moving inventory and cash stuck on the shelf | You need a supplier who can restock you fast |
Source: Randmar.
What it means for you: there's no single right answer. The right plan fits your demand and your cash, not your competitor's.
How we plan our own stock.
We face the same question every day, across more than 20,000 SKUs.
At Randmar, we run an automated forecast algorithm. It adjusts our stock by evaluating the demand of all our clients, for all of our SKUs.
Our general rule of thumb: we maintain 8 weeks of stock.
And our reorder points aren't one-size-fits-all. They're adjusted for each product's lead time, so items that take longer to arrive get reordered earlier.
Why that matters to you.
If ordering often fits your business, our stock is there to back you up:
- Order from a single unit, up to pallets.
- Order by 3 p.m. local time for same-day shipping.
- Typical delivery in 1 to 3 days, from Laval or Edmonton.
So you can buy for the next few weeks, see what sells, and reorder while the season is still running.
My real point
A good holiday reorder plan doesn't start with a purchase order.
It starts with your objectives, your demand and your cash.
Your quick win this week
Write down your holiday sales objective and the demand you expect. Then go through your top 10 holiday products and mark each one: stock deep, or order often.
Your turn
How are you planning your holiday inventory this year: stock deep, order often, or a mix of both?